Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, considered one of the safest Republican seats in the state, is now drawing national attention ahead of its December 2 special election. The contest was triggered by the resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Green, who stepped down this summer to return to the private sector. With the House majority thin and partisan tensions high, both parties are treating the race as an early test of political momentum heading into 2026.
The district covers fourteen counties stretching across Middle and West Tennessee, including Clarksville, Columbia, Dickson, and parts of the Nashville metropolitan area. President Trump carried the district by a twenty-plus point margin in 2024 due to the area's deep Republican roots. Even so, the timing and political environment around this special election have made it far more competitive on paper than previous cycles.
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps enters the race as the favorite. A West Point graduate and Special Operations helicopter pilot, he has centered his campaign on border security, advancing Trump’s America first agenda, and conservative fiscal policy. He has also secured endorsements from President Trump, Governor Bill Lee, Rep. Mark Green, and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan.
Democrat Aftyn Behn presents a stark contrast. A state representative and former social worker, she has campaigned heavily on lowering the cost of living, protecting reproductive rights, and preserving rural healthcare access. Behn has emphasized grocery tax relief and consumer protection as key pressure points for working families across the district. Her strategy aims to consolidate urban and suburban Democratic voters while making limited inroads into the region’s rural counties.
Recently, DNC Chairman Ken Martin visited the district to assist Behn’s campaign. During his visit, the Chairman expressed his optimism for the Democrat candidate, “We’ve been seeing for some time this energy and momentum for Democrats across the country. Obviously, it culminated last Tuesday with the wins up and down the ballot,” Martin stated. “And now we have a ton of momentum heading into this special election in Tennessee."
Although the district leans strongly Republican, several factors have elevated the national significance of this December vote.
First, the House majority remains narrow. A single seat will not reshape Congress, but any unexpected tightening in a district like this would influence party confidence, leadership maneuvering, and momentum narratives leading into the 2026 midterms. With federal spending negotiations, border policy debates, and economic legislation all facing razor-thin margins, even an isolated special election becomes strategically important.
Second, the race is occurring at an unusual time. A December election held days after Thanksgiving almost guarantees low turnout. Both parties are now relying on their most committed voters to carry them through a quiet political window when many residents are focused on holidays rather than politics. Across both campaigns, approximately $400,000 has been spent on advertising with Republicans spending more than the Democrat campaign by 3-1.
Third, the contest is offering early insight into how both parties plan to frame their messages for 2026. Republicans are using Van Epps to reinforce their national security message while tying their economic arguments to energy independence and supply chain stability. Democrats, meanwhile, hope Behn’s campaign will test the effectiveness of reproductive rights messaging in Republican-leaning areas. Suburban shifts in parts of Williamson and Montgomery counties will be particularly important indicators for strategists watching future statewide races.
Political strategists and analysts will focus closely on turnout patterns across the district. Republicans expect strong margins in rural counties such as Hickman, Perry, and Lawrence. Democrats will look for higher participation in Clarksville and the Nashville-area precincts included in the district after redistricting. Analysts say that even a ten-point tightening from typical presidential-year margins would signal increased Democratic energy heading into next year.
The winner will serve out the remainder of Green’s term and enter the 2026 cycle as an incumbent. That status carries fundraising advantages and allows the new member to quickly build relationships in Washington. Both parties understand that locking down the district early will shape their strategic map for the next election cycle.
While most forecasts still favor Van Epps, the combination of holiday timing, national dynamics, and shifting voter priorities has turned this once overlooked December election into an early indicator of the political climate entering a pivotal midterm year.
